According to The Kobeissi Letter, the bond markets are signaling a potential recession if current tariffs persist. The 10-year note yield has decreased by 90 basis points in approximately two months, currently sitting below 3.90% for the first time since September 22, 2024. This drop marks the onset of the 'Fed Pivot', highlighting significant changes in monetary policy that traders must monitor closely.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, inflation dropped significantly in March, with @truflation reporting it now below 2%. This decrease is crucial as it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with implications for a potential pivot. Traders are closely watching the upcoming CPI data release on April 10, as a lower-than-expected inflation rate could trigger a 'risk-on' rally in the markets.

According to Milk Road, March saw a significant drop in inflation, with Truflation reporting levels now under 2%. This development comes ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on April 10, which the markets are closely monitoring as it could influence a potential Federal Reserve policy shift. A lower-than-expected CPI could trigger a risk-on rally, as traders anticipate a potential easing of monetary policy.

According to @KobeissiLetter, since the Fed's pivot in September 2024, market-based inflation expectations have doubled, reaching 3.3% for the next two years. This marks the highest inflation expectation since March 2023, suggesting that traders are skeptical about the Fed's credibility in controlling inflation.

According to @KobeissiLetter, since the 'Fed pivot' in September 2024, market-based inflation expectations have more than doubled, reaching +3.3% over the next two years, the highest since March 2023. This shift indicates a significant market disbelief in the Fed's ability to control inflation, impacting trading strategies and asset valuations.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, since the 'Fed pivot' in September 2024, market-based inflation expectations have more than doubled, now anticipating a 3.3% inflation rate over the next two years, the highest since March 2023. This shift suggests traders are questioning the Federal Reserve's credibility in controlling inflation.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the Federal Reserve's recent pivot appears to be ineffective as inflation indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have risen. CPI has reached a 7-month high, and PPI is at its highest since February 2023. Additionally, interest rates paid by Americans have increased by 100 basis points since the rate cuts began, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the Federal Reserve's recent 'pivot' has led to an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to a seven-month high, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has reached its highest level since February 2023. This shift has resulted in interest rates for Americans rising by 100 basis points since the rate cuts began, highlighting the ongoing challenges of inflation management. These indicators are crucial for traders assessing inflationary pressures and interest rate trends, which can significantly impact market strategies.